Rate intelligence · the scorecard
We grade our own homework.
Every time we call a rate move, we write it down. When a lender actually moves, we check the call. No cherry-picking—misses stay on the board.
68%right on direction
300calls graded · last 90 days
205hits
WhenLender · termWe calledThey didResult
Sep 18First National 5yr fixedDown -53 to -99 bpsUp +0.06%Miss
Sep 18First National 5yr fixedDown -53 to -99 bpsUp +0.06%Miss
Sep 18First National 5yr fixedDown -53 to -99 bpsUp +0.25%Miss
Sep 16Servus 5yr variableUp +11 to +21 bpsDown -0.10%Miss
Sep 16Servus 3yr fixedUp +11 to +21 bpsUp +0.05%Hit
Sep 16Servus 2yr fixedUp +11 to +21 bpsDown -0.05%Miss
Sep 16Servus 1yr fixedUp +11 to +21 bpsDown -0.10%Miss
Sep 15First National 5yr variableUp +17 to +33 bpsUp +0.09%Hit
Sep 15First National 5yr fixedUp +17 to +33 bpsDown -0.25%Miss
Sep 15First National 5yr fixedUp +17 to +33 bpsUp +0.25%Hit
Sep 14Haventree 1yr fixedUp +16 to +30 bpsUp +0.35%Hit
Sep 14Haventree 12mo convertibleUp +16 to +30 bpsUp +0.45%Hit
Sep 14Haventree 12mo convertibleUp +16 to +30 bpsUp +0.35%Hit
Sep 14Haventree 5yr fixedUp +16 to +30 bpsUp +0.20%Hit
Sep 14Haventree 3yr fixedUp +16 to +30 bpsUp +0.20%Hit
Sep 14Haventree 2yr fixedUp +16 to +30 bpsUp +0.20%Hit
Sep 14Haventree 1yr fixedUp +16 to +30 bpsUp +0.10%Hit
Sep 14Haventree 12mo convertibleUp +16 to +30 bpsUp +0.10%Hit
Sep 14Haventree 5yr fixedUp +16 to +30 bpsDown -1.10%Miss
Sep 14Haventree 3yr fixedUp +16 to +30 bpsDown -1.05%Miss
Sep 14Haventree 2yr fixedUp +16 to +30 bpsDown -1.00%Miss
Sep 14Haventree 1yr fixedUp +16 to +30 bpsDown -1.15%Miss
Sep 14Haventree 12mo convertibleUp +16 to +30 bpsDown -1.15%Miss
Sep 14Haventree 3yr fixedUp +16 to +30 bpsUp +0.25%Hit
Sep 14Haventree 5yr fixedUp +16 to +30 bpsUp +0.35%Hit
A "hit" means we called the direction of the move before the lender made it. Sizes are ranges, not points—we grade direction, not decimals.
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