Rate intelligence · the scorecard
We grade our own homework.
Every time we call a rate move, we write it down. When a lender actually moves, we check the call. No cherry-picking—misses stay on the board.
79%right on direction
300calls graded · last 90 days
236hits
WhenLender · termWe calledThey didResult
Nov 4RFA Alt-A 3yr fixedUp +15 to +28 bpsUp +0.35%Hit
Nov 4RFA Alt-A 3yr fixedUp +15 to +28 bpsUp +0.15%Hit
Nov 4RFA Alt-A 3yr fixedUp +15 to +28 bpsUp +0.15%Hit
Nov 4RFA Alt-A 3yr fixedUp +15 to +28 bpsDown -0.35%Miss
Nov 4RFA Alt-A 2yr fixedUp +15 to +28 bpsUp +0.35%Hit
Nov 4RFA Alt-A 2yr fixedUp +15 to +28 bpsUp +0.15%Hit
Nov 4RFA Alt-A 2yr fixedUp +15 to +28 bpsUp +0.15%Hit
Nov 4RFA Alt-A 2yr fixedUp +15 to +28 bpsDown -0.35%Miss
Nov 4RFA Alt-A 1yr fixedUp +15 to +28 bpsUp +0.35%Hit
Nov 4RFA Alt-A 1yr fixedUp +15 to +28 bpsUp +0.15%Hit
Nov 4RFA Alt-A 1yr fixedUp +15 to +28 bpsUp +0.15%Hit
Nov 4RFA Alt-A 1yr fixedUp +15 to +28 bpsUp +0.05%Hit
Nov 3Fraction 1yr openUp +33 to +62 bpsUp +0.47%Hit
Nov 3Fraction 1yr openUp +33 to +62 bpsUp +0.48%Hit
Nov 3Radius 5yr fixedDown -7 to -13 bpsDown -0.10%Hit
Nov 3Radius 5yr fixedDown -7 to -13 bpsDown -0.10%Hit
Nov 2Haventree 3yr fixedUp +16 to +30 bpsUp +0.25%Hit
Nov 2Haventree 12mo convertibleUp +16 to +30 bpsDown -1.30%Miss
Nov 2Haventree 1yr fixedUp +16 to +30 bpsDown -1.30%Miss
Nov 2Haventree 2yr fixedUp +16 to +30 bpsDown -1.15%Miss
Nov 2Haventree 3yr fixedUp +16 to +30 bpsDown -1.20%Miss
Nov 2Haventree 5yr fixedUp +16 to +30 bpsDown -1.15%Miss
Nov 2Haventree 12mo convertibleUp +16 to +30 bpsUp +0.10%Hit
Nov 2Haventree 1yr fixedUp +16 to +30 bpsUp +0.10%Hit
Nov 2Haventree 2yr fixedUp +16 to +30 bpsUp +0.25%Hit
A "hit" means we called the direction of the move before the lender made it. Sizes are ranges, not points—we grade direction, not decimals.
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