Why We Watch These Numbers
Every month, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) publishes housing starts data — how many new homes broke ground across the country. These aren't just stats for economists. They tell you where supply is growing, where it's stalling, and what that means for your buying power, your home's value, or your next investment.
The July 2025 report shows some sharp regional swings. If you're planning a move, a renewal, or a pre-construction buy, here's what changed and why it matters to you.
The Big Picture – July 2025
The six-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR — basically a smoothed-out forecast of how many homes would start if the current pace held for a year) rose 3.7% in July to 263,088 units. That's a sign of steady momentum.
The monthly SAAR itself climbed 4% from June, landing at 294,085 units. Urban centres with populations over 10,000 drove most of that gain, hitting 273,618 units (up 5%). Rural areas accounted for 20,467 units.
Year-over-year, actual starts in centres with populations over 10,000 came in at 23,464 in July — up 4% from 22,610 a year ago. Year-to-date, Canada has seen 137,875 starts, also up 4% compared to the same stretch in 2024.
Three Cities, Three Very Different Stories
Montréal exploded with a 212% year-over-year jump, driven almost entirely by multi-unit projects. More apartments and condos are coming, which could ease pressure on rental rates and give first-time buyers more options down the line.
Vancouver posted a 24% year-over-year gain, also leaning on multi-unit starts. Demand for higher-density housing is holding strong on the West Coast.
Toronto, on the other hand, fell 69% year-over-year. Both single-detached and multi-unit starts slowed sharply. Less supply in the pipeline usually means tighter inventory and upward pressure on prices — especially if demand stays firm.
What's Driving the Numbers Nationally
Multi-unit construction is leading the charge across Canada. Québec and the Maritimes are posting outsized growth, fueled by demand for rental housing, demographic shifts, and permits approved earlier in the cycle.
That said, slowing population growth and rising vacancy rates in some markets could cool things off heading into 2026. The homes breaking ground today won't hit the market for months or years, so timing matters if you're counting on new supply.
What This Means for Your Next Move
If you're buying or investing in Montréal or Vancouver, new supply is coming — more condos, townhomes, and rental units. That could mean more choice and a bit more negotiating room as projects complete. In Toronto, the opposite is true: fewer starts now likely mean tighter inventory later, which could keep prices elevated.
If you're selling in a growth region, you may face competition from shiny new builds. In Toronto, though, limited supply could work in your favour.
If you're a builder or developer, multi-unit projects are still getting traction. But every region carries its own risks, so your financing needs to match the local reality.
And if you're eyeing a pre-construction purchase or thinking about a development mortgage, remember: what starts today won't be move-in ready for a long time. Timing and structure matter.
July 2025 at a Glance
Six-month trend SAAR: 263,088 units, up 3.7% from June. Total monthly SAAR: 294,085 units, up 4% from June. Urban SAAR (pop. 10,000+): 273,618 units, up 5%. Rural SAAR: 20,467 units. Actual starts in centres with populations over 10,000: 23,464 units, up 4% versus July 2024. Year-to-date actual starts: 137,875 units, up 4%. Montréal year-over-year growth: +212%. Vancouver year-over-year growth: +24%. Toronto year-over-year decline: -69%.
What to Do with This
July's CMHC data shows a construction sector that's adapting — unevenly — to where housing demand is strongest. Montréal and Vancouver are building fast. Toronto is pulling back. If you're buying, selling, investing, or building, the strategy that works in one city won't work in another.
That's where local insight and the right mortgage structure make the difference. Whether you're locking in a rate, sizing up a rental property, or timing a pre-construction buy, we're here to help you navigate what's actually happening in your market — not just what the national average says.
Reference: CMHC Website
