The economy just hit the brakes
Over 100,000 jobs lost in just two months. Unemployment at its highest level since 2016. Safe to say Canada's economy isn't on cruise control anymore.
Add in a wave of weak U.S. labour data, and financial markets have their eyes squarely on one thing: potential rate cuts.
Let's unpack what all this means for your mortgage — because whether you're buying, renewing, or refinancing, what's unfolding right now could directly impact your strategy heading into the fall.
Rate cuts now look like a done deal
The big headline? A Bank of Canada rate cut now appears more likely than not, with markets pricing it in at nearly 90% odds when the Bank meets next on September 17. That's a dramatic shift in tone, and it's tied directly to worsening domestic economic numbers and fading inflation risks.
We're not just talking minor bumps. August saw 65,500 jobs disappear — on top of 41,000 in July. Meanwhile, wage growth is softening, and aggressive U.S. tariffs (we see you, President Trump 2.0) are casting a long shadow across cross-border trade and consumer confidence. While Canadian inflation data is still pending (due September 16), expectations are low, especially after the federal government slashed many of its retaliatory tariffs.
That combo — softer growth, easing inflation pressure, and geopolitical trade disruptions — is classic fuel for central bank accommodation. So if you're in a variable-rate mortgage or considering one, this could be your window.
Fixed vs. variable: where do we stand?
Fixed mortgage rates have now settled back to their long-term averages.
At the moment, both the three- and five-year fixed terms are attractive choices. When rates are this close, I lean toward the five-year fixed as it typically provides slightly better overall value.
That said, I still believe today's variable rates are positioned to deliver the lowest borrowing costs over the full term — especially with Bank of Canada cuts appearing imminent.
However, a variable rate is only suitable for you if you're comfortable with its natural ups and downs and have the financial flexibility to handle higher costs (and in some cases, higher payments) if the outlook changes.
Tip of the week
In uncertain times like these, more people are navigating complex timelines — especially when selling and buying don't line up perfectly. That's where bridge financing steps in. If you're moving from one home to another and the closing dates don't match, a well-structured bridge loan can keep your plans on track.
Not all lenders offer bridge financing, and not all do it equally well. Rates and terms vary, so having a strategy in place early is crucial to avoid surprises.
