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Beyond The Rate
As an expert mortgage broker, I know building wealth through homeownership and achieving financial freedom is about more than just chasing the lowest rate—it’s about strategy.
I'm taking you behind the scenes and giving you the insider tools and powerful strategies to get ahead. If you’re a first-time homebuyer, you’ll find everything you need to secure your first property and start building wealth from day one.
If you’re an existing homeowner, this is where you take control. Maximize the wealth-building potential of your current home with proven strategies for refinancing, leveraging equity, and optimizing your mortgage for bigger opportunities.
Your mortgage is more than a loan—it’s a gateway to long-term financial success.
My goal is simple: to equip you with the knowledge and tools to make smart, strategic decisions that will transform your financial future.
Let’s get started.
September Rate Cut? Here’s How Bond Markets Are Really Responding
August 25, 2025 | Posted by: Matt Broom-Hall
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We're seeing a shift in the wind—and it’s starting to smell like rate relief.
Canada’s latest inflation numbers are in, and for the second month in a row, price growth has cooled slightly more than expected. In July, consumer price index (CPI) inflation slowed to 1.7% year-over-year, down from 1.9% in June, tipping just below economists' forecasts. Core inflation gauges—the ones the Bank of Canada (BoC) watches most closely—also eased. That’s notable, and it’s making the conversation around upcoming rate cuts grow louder.
But here’s the twist: mortgage rates aren’t budging just yet. Let’s dig into why that is—and what it means for you.
So, with inflation cooling, shouldn’t mortgage rates be falling too?
Not quite. Fixed mortgage rates are based on Government of Canada bond yields, and while those yields did dip slightly late last week, the move wasn’t strong enough to shift lender pricing. Bond markets took some cues from the U.S., after Fed chair Jerome Powell made dovish comments at the Jackson Hole symposium, hinting that rate cuts may be coming south of the border. But even there, caution lingers.
Here in Canada, markets are pricing in about a 40% chance of a BoC rate cut at their next meeting on September 17. That means while a cut is certainly possible, it’s still far from a done deal.
The reality? Bond traders and lenders remain more reactive to bad news than good, and are waiting for more consistent signs that inflation is sinking to sustainable levels. For now, that means fixed mortgage rates remain steady, with an upward bias still in play. Variable-rate discounts haven’t changed either.
Variable rates still have long-term potential. If you're flexible and financially resilient, variable-rate mortgages continue to offer the potential for lower total interest costs over time — but only if you can weather some short-term bumps. A rate cut could come later this fall or winter, but don’t bank your budget on it just yet.
Buying your first home? In hotter markets like the GTA and parts of Alberta, activity is picking up again as first-timers jump off the fence. Pre-approval is key, but equally important is going into the market with a clear game plan and a solid understanding of your total cost of ownership.
What’s next?
While a Bank of Canada rate cut could happen as early as mid-September, it’s more likely we’ll see slower, more measured moves into the fall and winter. The Bank is in watch-and-wait mode — balancing inflation targets with signs that the job market and economic growth are softening.
If economic drag continues and inflation keeps easing, that gives the BoC more freedom to shift towards a growth-supporting stance — code for lower interest rates. Until then, stay nimble and keep your strategies grounded in today’s reality, not just tomorrow’s hopes.
Tip of the Week
Getting close to your renewal date? Don’t wait for your lender’s letter in the mail. Connect with a broker (hey, that's me!) 90–120 days out to explore all your competitive options. Many lenders will hold current rates for four months — giving you more flexibility, potentially better pricing, and way less pressure.
Cheers,
Matt