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As an expert mortgage broker, I know building wealth through homeownership and achieving financial freedom is about more than just chasing the lowest rate—it’s about strategy.
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Your mortgage is more than a loan—it’s a gateway to long-term financial success.
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Rent Up, Inflation Down—How That Math Works for Mortgage Rates
November 26, 2025 | Posted by: Matt Broom-Hall
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With December fast approaching, mortgage markets are holding their breath—but not in the way you might expect. Inflation is cooling, rents are surprising, and the Bank of Canada is staying patient.
Let’s talk inflation first. Canada’s CPI dropped from 2.4% to 2.2% year-over-year in October, in line with expectations. On the surface, that’s good news. Lower inflation typically means lower borrowing costs down the road. But the Bank of Canada isn’t rushing to lower its benchmark rate just yet.
Peeling the onion a little, shelter costs—especially rent—continue to dominate inflation pressure. Rents spiked 1.0% month-over-month and are now 5.2% higher than a year ago. That doesn’t align with what many landlords are experiencing in cities like Calgary, Edmonton, and Toronto, where asking rent is increasingly negotiable, thanks to easing demand and a pullback in immigration. It’s likely this recent rental surge is short-lived, and we may soon see it level off—or even reverse.
The other side of the shelter equation? Mortgage rates. While variable rates haven’t budged, fixed mortgage rates have dropped from their recent highs and are hovering near their long-term averages. Just don’t expect the Bank of Canada to announce a rate cut at its upcoming December 10 announcement. Recent signals from policymakers suggest they believe the current rate level is “about right”—at least for now.
What makes this moment interesting is that the future path of inflation already has clues baked in. As those higher mortgage rates from earlier this year gradually fall off the CPI radar due to reporting lags, relief is already in the works—even before the BoC changes course again.
On the lending front, fixed-rate mortgages remain steady, with three- and five-year terms both offering solid value. But here’s where your strategy matters: If five-year and three-year fixed rates are equal, the longer term may edge out on value thanks to better protection in a still-uncertain rate environment.
Variable-rate mortgages, meanwhile, remain a wild card. While most insiders expect at least one more BoC rate cut eventually—likely in 2026—it’ll take “an accumulation” of further soft economic data to move the needle. So if you’re considering a variable option, make sure your budget can flex if volatility flares up before rates ease again.
Tip of the Week:
Did you know that not all variable-rate mortgages are calculated the same way? Some use semi-annual compounding (like fixed rates), while others use monthly compounding—which actually costs you more in interest over time. Always clarify how your interest is calculated before you sign on the dotted line. It’s a small detail with a big impact.
The end of the year can tempt us to hit pause. But in mortgage world, it’s a great moment to be proactive—especially with inflation trends nudging in the right direction.
If you’re unsure about locking in, floating, refinancing, or just holding tight—reach out. I’m here to simplify the options and get you confidently into 2026.