Mortgage & Wealth Strategies
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Beyond The Rate
As expert mortgage brokers, we know building wealth through homeownership and achieving financial freedom is about more than just chasing the lowest rate—it’s about strategy.
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Your mortgage is more than a loan—it’s a gateway to long-term financial success.
Our goal is simple: to equip you with the knowledge and tools to make smart, strategic decisions that will transform your financial future.
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Inflation Holds Steady and Rate Pause Expectations Remain High
January 19, 2026 | Posted by: Matt Broom-Hall
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Last week’s most important development was the release of the latest U.S. inflation data for December. Inflation remains one of the key factors that influences bond yields and rate forecasts, and the newest report confirmed that while price pressures are no longer surging the way they were in prior years, they are still high enough to keep the U.S. Federal Reserve cautious.
As a result, the market is now pricing in a strong likelihood that the Fed holds rates steady at its next meeting — and that has a ripple effect on broader rate expectations.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady at 2.7% year-over-year, matching expectations.
Inflation increased 0.3% month-over-month, which was higher than November’s 0.1% increase and slightly above forecasts.
This confirmed that prices continued to rise at the margin in December, and the inflation pressure remains concentrated in areas that people have the hardest time cutting back on.
Because of that, inflation continues to remain above the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
Bond markets were relatively unchanged after the CPI report. The data suggested inflation isn’t accelerating sharply, but it also didn’t create a strong case for near-term rate cuts.
Markets are now assigning a very high probability that the U.S. Fed will pause at its next meeting on January 28.
The Latest on Canadian Rates
In Canada, Government of Canada bond yields remained relatively stable last week, and fixed mortgage rates were mostly unchanged.
That said, fixed rates still carry some upward pressure in the background due to ongoing concerns related to U.S. inflation remaining sticky, volatility in U.S. trade policy, and elevated government spending (and its long-term impact on bond markets).
On the variable-rate side, the discounts lenders have been offering off Prime narrowed slightly last week.
Like the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada is not widely expected to move its policy rate in the immediate term. However, recent communication from the BoC has leaned more dovish, and the next move is still expected to be a hold.
Tip of the Week: Closing Costs Add Up Quickly
One of the most common surprises for buyers is the total amount of closing costs required on possession. Depending on the property and location, closing costs can include items such as:
• Legal fees and disbursements
• Home inspection
• Property tax adjustments
• Title insurance
• Condo document review fees (if applicable)
• Moving costs
If you are planning to buy in the near future, it’s worth building a closing-cost estimate into your budget early so there are no surprises later. This calculator will help you estimate them, and this blog post provides a detailed explanation of each closing-cost category.
My Take on Today’s Mortgage Options
My recommendation is unchanged from last week.
Fixed rates are currently close to long-term average levels, and both three-year and five-year fixed terms remain popular choices.
Recently, the premium for longer fixed terms has been increasing. As long as the spread between three-year and five-year fixed rates remains minimal, the five-year fixed term can offer slightly better value for borrowers who want stability.
Variable rates may still produce the lowest borrowing cost over the full term if the Bank of Canada cuts rates over time. However, variable rates are only a fit for borrowers who are comfortable with potential payment or interest-cost volatility, and who have enough financial flexibility to handle higher costs if rates move in the opposite direction.